Huge market expectations, the secondary market lithium plate ushered in the "Carnival" , lithium industry dividend is also gradually realized. Lithium copper foil, the giant Nord shares bluntly "full single. ". "there is a market price" , but the market expansion is limited, the market is generally believed that the supply and demand of lithium copper foil 2021 tight.

Associated Press reporters learned that multiple investigations, downstream demand-driven and raw material prices rose, 6m lithium copper foil present a high shock. However, due to the long production cycle of key equipment, process accumulation and qualification barriers, it is difficult to break through the production capacity in the short term.

1. Tight supply and demand or no increase in profit margins

Copper Foil for lithium battery is used as current collector of negative electrode material. According to the new calculation by ANSC, the proportion of copper foil in battery cost is 5%-8% . The cost of lithium copper foil is mainly composed of raw materials and processing costs, from Jiayuan technology prospectus, which direct materials accounted for more than 70% .

Xin Information analyst Hu Junlong told the Associated Press, the current copper foil prices rose mainly to follow the volatility of copper prices. Given the strength of the battery factory, from this price increase, despite tight supply, but has not actually significantly increased to the processing fee part. This or means, lithium copper foil plant in the "selling is not good" embarrassing situation, profit margin or did not get a significant real increase.

There are also ultra-china technology related to the Associated Press reporters, copper foil processing costs have risen by 30% , downstream demand explosion growth, but insufficient supply, supply and demand imbalance also led to the rise in product prices. However, Chaohua Technology, Nord shares for profit margins related to the situation is not disclosed.

There are two main reasons for the tight supply of copper foil for Lithium batteries. Li Peng explained that the demand side continues to improve, and the demand of downstream lithium battery customers has doubled, including the fast growth of power batteries and high-end consumer batteries And supply end capacity is limited, domestic lithium copper foil in the last two years of capacity release speed can not keep up with the expansion of customers.

CHAOHUA technology sources told the financial news agency analysis demand side, downstream battery manufacturers have large-scale expansion, such as LG2023 planning capacity to expand to 300 Gwh, 2025 Ningde Times capacity will be expanded to 450 gwh, south Korea SKI plans to expand production capacity to 100 GWH by 2025,1GWH NEEDS 6 micron copper foil 700 tons, 8 Micron need 900 tons, lithium copper foil demand to usher in explosive growth opportunities.

According to CCFA data, the annual compound growth rate of global demand for 6M lithium copper foil is estimated to be 68.5% from 2020 to 2025, and the corresponding annual compound growth rate of market space is 64.9% , which is significantly higher than the overall growth rate of lithium copper foil.

As for the driving force of pulling lithium copper foil in the future, Li Peng believes that the downstream applications of pulling lithium copper foil in the future will mainly focus on power batteries, energy storage batteries, high end 3C consumer batteries, etc. , the application scale of lithium copper foil will also be larger and larger.

The financial news agency reporters noted that since July 2020, domestic new energy vehicles to achieve the year-on-year positive growth for the first time, followed by good month-on-month. In addition, the National Shenche Hongguang Mini "big win" in the market and model y recently significantly reduced prices, or will further disrupt the new energy vehicle market, in full competition, to promote the popularity of new energy vehicles to a certain extent.

2.capacity expansion constraints of a variety of factors

AP reporters learned that the supply and demand of lithium 2021 copper foil is generally tense. The domestic lithium power giants have stepped up production, but because there is a certain period of expansion, or failed to be fully released in the 2021.

Incomplete statistics. Last year, the expansion of domestic a-share lithium-ion battery copper foil plants showed that last May, nord plans to put into production 15,000 tons of ultra-thin copper foil per year. In December, Jiayuan technology will reach 35,000 tons of production capacity under construction or in the planning stage. In October, Chaohua technology plans to put into production 10,000 tons of ultra-thin lithium copper foil per year.

However, the accumulation of core equipment and technology has also become a key factor affecting the expansion of market capacity. According to Li Peng, Japan has a monopoly on high end production equipment, and the level of domestic replacement equipment is gradually catching up, but capacity is limited. New Copper Foil Enterprise Environmental Impact Assessment, customer certification also takes a longer time, master the process of the industry experts are scarce.

In order to improve the energy density of batteries, copper foil to thin development, the industry is the common process for electrolytic copper foil, dissolved copper, green foil, post-processing, cutting four-step process. One of the raw foil needs to use the cathode roll, now high-end copper foil basically used by the cathode roll from Japan.

Chaohua technology sources said that the procurement of Cathode Roll from the order to receive time has been stretched to 2.5-3 years. To a certain extent, it also limits the release of industrial capacity and raises industrial barriers.

It expects tight supply conditions to remain in place in the future. In 2019,431,000 tons of electrolytic copper foil were produced, 420,000 tons were sold, 104,500 tons were imported and 26,900 tons were exported. In addition, the rapid development of the field of energy storage will also drive lithium copper foil demand growth engine.

The Bank of China Securities Research report shows that the technical barriers to the production of 6M ultra-thin copper foil are higher and the production capacity is concentrated in China. It is estimated that the effective production capacity of 6M copper foil in China in 2020-2022 will be 52,000 tons, 69,000 tons and 90,000 tons respectively, the gap between supply and demand IS-25,000 tons,-0.62,000 tons and 16,300 tons, respectively.

However, it is worth noting that domestic lithium copper foil manufacturers have to 4,5 m development. Nord ultra-thin copper foil 4.5 m-5m has achieved mass production supply, Jiayuan technology in the 2020 half-year report also said it has been successful R & D and small batch production of less than 6 m ultra-thin lithium copper foil. However, Hu Junlong also said that ≤6m lithium copper foil is too thin and easy to break, downstream to be debugged, not large-scale application.

Source: The Financial Times